Conference is being held in Room 2030 Pamplin (map of campus)
DAY #1 :
Friday, June 2
8:15-9:00 am REGISTRATION
9:00-9:15 INTRODUCTION: D. G. Mayo (Virginia Tech):
"Why I am running this conference" (Chair, A. Spanos)
9:15-9:25 J. Niles, Dean of the College of Liberal Arts and Human Sciences
SESSION I - PHS: Theory Appraisal, Critical Rationalism, Severe Testing,
9:25-10:20 D. G. Mayo "Severe Tests, Error Statistics, and the Growth of Theoretical
Knowledge" (Chair, A. Spanos)
10:20-10:40 Coffee break & announcements
10:40-11:30 A. Chalmers (The Flinders University of South Australia)
"Can Scientific Theories be Warranted?" (Chair, P. Achinstein)
11:35-12:25 J. Worrall (London School of Economics, England):
"Error, Tests and Theory-Confirmation in Science" (Chair, A. Chalmers)
Lunch: VT Inn (Old Guard room) - Special Invited Speakers & Workshop Presenters
2:10-3:00pm A. Musgrave (University of Otago, New Zealand)
"Critical Rationalism, Explanation, and Severe Tests" (Chair, J. Worrall)
3:00-3:15 Coffee break
3:20-4:15 Panel Discussion on Session I (Chair, L. Laudan)
4:20-5:20 Workshop 1 (Chair, J. Miller)
Error and Evidence: Methodology and Theory Appraisal
J. Roberts (North Carolina): "Coping with Severe Test Anxiety: Problems and Prospects for an Error-Statistical Approach to the Testing of High-Level Theories"
K. Staley (Saint Louis University): "Error-statistical Theory Assessment and Alternative Hypothesis Problems: A Role for Judgments of Plausibility?"
W. Parker (University of California, San Diego): "Computer Simulation Through an Error-Statistical Lens"
5:20-5:40 Workshop 1 - Discussion
DAY # 2:
Saturday, June 3
SESSION II - Philosophical Foundations of Statistics and Inductive Inference
9:00-10:05 D. R. Cox (University of Oxford) (joint paper with D.G. Mayo)
"Some Remarks on the Nature of Statistical Inference" (Chair, A. Spanos)
10:05-10:20 Coffee break
10:20-11:10 A. Spanos (Virginia Tech)
"Statistical Induction, Severe Testing and Model Validation" (Chair, C. Glymour)
11:10-12:00 P. Achinstein (John Hopkins University)
"Mill's Sins" (Chair, A. Musgrave)
12:00-1:00 Box Lunch - All participants
1:00-2:15 Poster sessions in Atrium (Pamplin Hall)
(DETAILS IN APPENDIX A)
2:20-3:15 Panel discussion on Session II - (Chair, K. Staley)
3:15-3:30 Coffee break
3:30 -4:30 Workshop 2 (Chair, M. Forster): Error, Probability, and Logic
J. Williamson (University of Kent): "Inductive Influence"
R. de Cristofaro (University of Florence): "Foundations of the 'Objective
G. Wheeler (New University of Lisbon): "Compounding Doubts"
4:30-4:50 Workshop 2 discussion
4:50-5:50 Workshop 3 (Chair, T. Kepler): Error and Ecology
B. Dennis (University of Idaho): "Keeping the Faith: How Prior Beliefs Can Become Data Resistant"
M. Taper (Montana State University): "Model Structural Adequacy"
S. Lele (University of Alberta): "On quantifying evidence in the presence of nuisance parameters: Evidence functions and their applications in ecology"
5:50-6:10 Workshop 3 discussion
6:20- 7:20 Poster Sessions refreshments/ hors d'oeuvres (Posters may continue)
DAY # 3 :
Sunday, June 4
SESSION III - Error and Reliable Evidence in Practice: Law, Causal Modeling, Biology, Computer Science
9:00-10:05 C. Glymour (Carnegie Mellon University):
"Bayesian Ptolemaic Psychology" (Chair, D. G. Mayo)
10:05-10:25 Coffee break
10:25-11:15 L. Laudan (National Autonomous University of Mˇxico)
"The Defendant's Burden: the Onus Probandi and the Anomaly of Affirmative Defenses" (Chair, D. R. Cox)
11:15-11:40 Discussion on session III
11:40-12:05 General Discussion (Chair, D. Mayo): Philosophy and Methodology in Practice
Lunch: VT Inn (Old Guard room): Special Invited Speakers & Poster presenters
1:45 -2:45 Workshop 4 (Chair, G. Wheeler): Causal Discovery, & Model Selection
M. Forster (University of Wisconsin): "Counterexamples to a Likelihood
Theory of Evidence"
F. Eberhardt (Carnegie Mellon): "Conflicts in Sequences of Experiments"
J. Zhang (Carnegie Mellon): "Seeking Truth and Avoiding Error:
What Can We Hope Causal Inference Procedures to Achieve?"
2:45-3:05 Workshop 4 discussion
3:05-3:20 Coffee break
3:20-4:20 Workshop 5. (Chair, W. Parker) Epidemiology & Evolutionary Computation
T. Kepler (Duke University): "Whither Statistics on Biology's Wings?"
A. Ward & P. Jo Johnson (Minnesota): "Specification and Confounding Errors When Using Non-Experimental, Observational Data to Make Causal Inferences"
T. Bartz-Beielstein: (Dortmund): "NPT* in Evolutionary Computing"
4:20-4:40 Workshop 5 discussion
4:45-4:55 Coffee break
5:00-5:30 A. Spanos: Closing Remarks/Overview
5:30-5:45 GENERAL DISCUSSION
7:15-11:00 END OF ERROR 06 party at Thebes
(2210 Maple Lane – Home of D. Mayo and G. Chatfield)
appendix A: LIST OF Poster session PRESENTATIONS
B. Abounader (University of Toronto): "The Importance of Error in Learning from Scientific Models"
E. Aktunc (Virginia Tech): "The Tacking Paradox: A Critique of Bayesian Treatments and an Error-
Statistical Proposal for Its Solution"
J. Byrd (Central Identification Laboratory): "The Role of E.R.R.O.R. in the Forensic Identification of
A. Crawford (Virginia Tech): "Evaluating Economics: What have we learnt from Empirical Modeling"
J. Downard (Northern Arizona University): "Inductive Forms of Inference in the Law"
D. Fennell (London School of Economics, England): "The Error Term and its Interpretation in
Structural Models in Econometrics"
U. Frey (Technical University of Braunschweig, Germany): "Scientific Errors: their Cognitive Basis
and Evolutionary Roots"
C. Glymour (Carnegie Mellon University): "Rocks, Genes, Fire and Lead: Avoiding Testing"
G. Granek (University of Haifa, Israel): "Scanning Tunneling Microscope (STM): an Instrument That
Evolved from an Error"
C. Kayrouz (Western Kentucky University): "Debunking the Global Warming Myth: Error and the
Experimental Process in Climatology"
T. Koehnle (University of Pittsburgh) & J. Schank (University of California, Davis)
"Using Monte Carlo Simulations to Evaluate the Design and Analysis of Experiments: the Case of Pseudoreplication"
J. Mazzaggatti (UNISYS Corporation): "The Potential for Recognizing Errors in a dataset Using a
Computer Memory Resident Data Structure Based on the Phaneron of C.S. Peirce"
A. Pilpel (University of Haifa, Israel): "How Experimental Error is Discovered by Rational Belief
D. Rudge (Western Michigan University): "Kettlewell from an Error Statistician's Point of View"
B. Schweitzer (University of Osnabrueck): "How Something Works is Most Easily Found out if it
doesn't Work: The Methodology of Learning from an Object's Errors, Deficits, and Malfunctions"
L. Smith (London School of Economics, England): "Using Error(s) to Improve and Interpret Nonlinear Models of Dynamic Systems"
A. Spanos (Virginia Tech): "Severe Testing Evaluation: Excel Program"
R. Stanev (University of British Columbia): "Expert Knowledge vs. Quantitative Methods: P-value
Fallacy in Epidemiology"
C. Tomanek (Jagiellonian University): "How Philosophical Decisions Shape Social Knowledge: On
some Experimental Errors in Sociology"
E. Walker (NASA Langley Research Center): "Physical Insight from Error Analysis of a Mechanistic Model: An example from the National Transonic Facility"
APPENDIX B – LIST OF SPONSORS OF ERROR 06
DepARtMENT of Economics
NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION
College of Liberal ARts and Human Sciences
College of Science
DepARtMENT of Philosophy